An economic calendar is a schedule of the data releases, central bank decisions and other scheduled events that can move currency, index, commodity and share prices. Each entry shows when the event happens, which economy it concerns, how much impact it is expected to have, what the previous reading was, what analysts expect this time and, once published, the actual figure. Traders use it to know in advance when volatility is likely, not to predict which way prices will go. This article explains each column, lists the events that matter most, and walks through the rest of October 2026 in Central European time.
What one row of the calendar tells you
A calendar row usually has seven parts:
- Time. The scheduled release time, shown in the time zone you have set in the calendar. This is the first thing to check: the same US release is 14:30 in Warsaw during European summer time, but 13:30 or 15:30 in the weeks when Europe and the United States change their clocks on different dates (see the section on the clock-change week below).
- Country or currency. The economy the data refers to, and therefore the currency and indices most likely to react.
- Event. The name of the release: a rate decision, an inflation index, a jobs report, a PMI survey.
- Impact. A low / medium / high rating of how strongly the market has historically reacted to this release. High-impact events are rate decisions, inflation and employment data for the major economies.
- Prior. The previous published value. If it has been revised since, calendars show the revised number.
- Forecast. The consensus estimate of economists surveyed before the release. This is what the market has already priced in.
- Actual. The figure published at the release time, usually shown in colour: better than forecast, worse than forecast, or in line.
ABF Trade's economic calendar shows the same structure: tabs for yesterday, today and upcoming events, a custom date picker, an impact filter (all, low, medium, high) and columns for Actual, Forecast and Prior for each event.
Why "actual versus forecast" matters more than the number itself
A release moves prices mainly through the gap between the actual figure and the consensus forecast, not through the figure alone. If inflation is reported at 3.0% and the consensus was 3.0%, the market has already positioned for that number and the reaction is often small. If the consensus was 2.7%, the same 3.0% is a surprise: it changes expectations about what the central bank will do next, and that is what repriced bonds, currencies and indices.
Two consequences follow. First, a "good" number does not guarantee a "good" market reaction: a strong jobs report can push a currency down if traders conclude that it rules out a rate cut they had been expecting. Second, revisions matter. A jobs report that comes in above forecast but revises the previous two months sharply down can be read as weak overall. Calendars show the revised prior for this reason.
The events that move markets most
- Central bank rate decisions. The decision itself is often expected; the statement, the vote split and the press conference that follow set the tone for the next weeks. For the euro area the European Central Bank (ECB) decides eight times a year; for the US dollar, the Federal Reserve's FOMC; for the zloty, forint and koruna — the National Bank of Poland (NBP), the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) and the Czech National Bank (ČNB).
- Inflation. Consumer price indices (CPI, and in the euro area HICP) are the data central banks watch most closely, so the market treats them as a proxy for future rate decisions.
- Employment. The US Employment Situation report — "non-farm payrolls" — is published on the first Friday of most months and is the single most watched monthly release in forex.
- Growth and activity. GDP, purchasing managers' indices (PMI), retail sales and industrial production.
- Company earnings. For share CFDs and equity indices, the quarterly reporting season matters as much as macro data: results are published before the market opens or after it closes, so the share often opens with a gap.
October 2026 in dates (Warsaw, Prague and Budapest time)
| Date | Event | Time | What to know |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 October | US Employment Situation (September) | 14:30 | Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 ET |
| 6–7 October | NBP Monetary Policy Council decision | 15:00 on 7 October | Rates left unchanged; reference rate 3.75%; next decision 3–4 November |
| 6 October | MNB Monetary Council meeting | — | A non-rate-setting meeting; the base rate stays at 5.50% |
| 13–15 October | US Q3 earnings season opens | before the US open | Large banks report first; JPMorgan Chase on 13 October at 7:00 ET |
| 14 October | US Consumer Price Index (September) | 14:30 | 8:30 ET |
| 20 October | MNB rate decision | 14:00 | Decision published at 14:00, press conference at 14:30 |
| 25 October (night of 24–25) | Clocks go back in the EU | 03:00 → 02:00 | The US changes only on 1 November — see below |
| 27–28 October | FOMC meeting | decision 19:00 on 28 October | 14:00 ET; press conference 14:30 ET (19:30 CET); no economic projections at this meeting |
| 28–29 October | ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting | decision 14:15 on 29 October | Press conference at 14:45 CET |
| 1 November | Clocks go back in the US | — | European and US schedules realign |
| 4 November | NBP decision | 15:00 | — |
| 5 November | ČNB rate decision | 14:30 | No ČNB rate meeting in October; press conference at 15:00 |
| 6 November | US Employment Situation (October) | 14:30 | 8:30 ET |
| 10 November | US CPI (October) | 14:30 | 8:30 ET |
Times are converted from the official release times (ET for US data, CET/CEST for European central banks). Always confirm the time in the calendar on the day: release times are occasionally moved.
The clock-change week: 25 October to 1 November
Europe switches to winter time on the night of 24–25 October 2026 (the last Sunday of October); the United States switches on 1 November (the first Sunday of November). For one week the usual six-hour gap between Warsaw and New York shrinks to five hours, so every US release and the US session itself arrive one hour earlier by Central European clocks. The FOMC decision on 28 October is the clearest example: 14:00 ET, which is normally 20:00 in Warsaw, falls at 19:00 that week.
ABF Trade's contract specifications state this directly: trading session times are listed in GMT+2 when daylight saving time is not observed in the US and in GMT+3 when it is, and products based on EU market hours have their session times offset by one hour during the weeks when EU and US daylight saving changes are out of alignment. In practice this means two things for that week: check the instrument's trading hours in the contract specification rather than relying on memory, and check the time zone setting of whichever economic calendar you use.
How traders prepare for a release
The calendar does not tell you which way the price will go; it tells you when liquidity and volatility will change. Around a high-impact release, several things are typical:
- Spreads widen and liquidity thins in the seconds before and after the figure, because liquidity providers pull or widen their quotes until the number is known.
- Orders are filled at the next available price. ABF Trade executes orders by market execution without requotes, which means a stop or a pending order triggered during a fast move is filled at the price available at that moment — it can be worse than the order level (slippage) in either direction.
- The first move is often not the last. Prices frequently reverse within minutes as the market digests revisions, the statement wording or the press conference.
For that reason many traders either close or reduce positions before a release they consider unpredictable, or size positions so that a move several times larger than usual stays within the loss they are prepared to accept. Because CFDs are traded on margin, the same price move produces a larger change in account equity than the move itself; the margin-call level of 100% and the stop-out level of 50% apply regardless of why the price moved. None of this is a recommendation to trade news: it is the mechanics that a calendar entry implies.
Where the calendar fits in your analysis
An economic calendar is the schedule side of fundamental analysis: it tells you when the information that fundamental traders act on arrives. Technical traders use it differently: to avoid opening positions minutes before a release, or to interpret a breakout that coincides with one. Both groups look at the same row; they draw different conclusions from the impact rating and the forecast.
Frequently asked questions
What time zone does an economic calendar use?
Most calendars let you choose one and default either to your device's zone or to the broker's server time. Check the setting before relying on the times, particularly in the weeks when Europe and the United States are on different daylight-saving schedules.
What does "high impact" mean?
A rating based on how strongly the market has reacted to that release in the past. It says nothing about the direction of the reaction, and a high-impact release that matches the forecast can pass almost unnoticed.
What is the difference between "forecast" and "prior"?
Prior is the previous published value (revised if a revision has been issued). Forecast is the consensus estimate of economists for the upcoming release. The market reaction depends mainly on how the actual figure compares with the forecast.
Why did the market move the opposite way to what the data suggested?
Usually because the figure was already priced in, because revisions to earlier data changed the picture, or because a central bank statement or press conference mattered more than the headline number. Sometimes the first move simply reverses as the market reads the details.
Do I need to trade around news releases?
No. Many traders use the calendar to stay out of the market around releases they cannot interpret. What the calendar tells you with certainty is only the timing of volatility.
Is there a central bank decision in the Czech Republic in October 2026?
No. The ČNB's 2026 monetary policy meetings are on 5 February, 19 March, 7 May, 18 June, 6 August, 17 September, 5 November and 17 December. The decision is published at 14:30 and the press conference starts at 15:00.
Where do I find the economic calendar at ABF Trade?
Under Trading → Economic Calendar: https://abftrade.com/eu/en/trading/economic-calendar. It shows yesterday's, today's and upcoming events with an impact filter and the Actual, Forecast and Prior columns.
Sources
- European Central Bank — calendar of Governing Council meetings (monetary policy meeting 28–29 October 2026, press conference on 29 October) — https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
- Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendars (27–28 October 2026; projections at the March, June, September and December meetings) — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation release schedule — https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index release schedule — https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
- Narodowy Bank Polski — Monetary Policy Council decisions and schedule — https://nbp.pl/polityka-pieniezna/decyzje-rpp/
- Magyar Nemzeti Bank — communiqué on the Monetary Council meeting of 6 October 2026 — https://www.mnb.hu/monetaris-politika/a-monetaris-tanacs/kozlemenyek/2026/kozlemeny-a-monetaris-tanacs-2026-oktober-6-i-uleserol
- Česká národní banka — Bank Board meeting dates in 2026 — https://www.cnb.cz/cs/cnb-news/aktuality/Terminy-zasedani-bankovni-rady-CNB-vnbsproce-2026-00001/
- EUR-Lex — Directive 2000/84/EC on summer-time arrangements (summer time ends on the last Sunday of October) — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2000/84/oj
- NIST — Daylight saving time in the United States (ends on the first Sunday of November) — https://www.nist.gov/pml/time-and-frequency-division/popular-links/daylight-saving-time-dst
- ABF Trade — Contract Specifications: session times in GMT+2 / GMT+3 and the EU–US daylight-saving offset — https://abftrade.com/eu/en/trading/contract-specifications
- ABF Trade — Trading Accounts: market execution, margin call 100%, stop-out 50% — https://abftrade.com/eu/en/accounts
- ABF Trade — Economic Calendar — https://abftrade.com/eu/en/trading/economic-calendar
Related reading in the Learning Centre: Forex Trading Sessions, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Hawkish vs Dovish, Volatility Meaning in Trading, The concept of Fundamental Analysis, and in the blog: What Is a CFD and How Does CFD Trading Work?
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